Chance of Marriage? Proposal in Assembly

The prospects of same-sex marriage in New York just got real this week, as Democratic Assemblyman Daniel O'Donnell introduced Assembly bill 7600, which "relates to individuals ability to marry."
This is the same bill that he introduced last session and passed his chamber with 89 votes, before failing in the Senate by a vote of 38 to 24.
If adopted into law the proposal would amend the domestic relations law to allow same-sex couples the same opportunity to enter into civil marriages as opposite-sex couples. Additionally, it ensures that no member of the clergy can be compelled to perform any marriage ceremonies.
This measure comes on the heels of a report from the IDC, which laid out the economic case for same-sex marriage. Their summary was:

Recognizing marriage between same sex partners in New York State would create $310,567,652 in increased revenue and economic activity during the next three years, with potential savings of $80,848,457.

Cuomo 2014

Gov. Andrew Cuomo's reelection campaign for 2014 was formally announced via mousepad, pen and notepad (courtesy of Capital Tonight) on Friday night at Proctors Theater in Schenectady. Cuomo was in town for the Democratic Rural Conference's two-day Convention.
Guests of the Convention were given these parting gifts, which were imprinted with the words "Cuomo 2014." The governor did not address this fact during his opening remarks at the Convention. In fact, DRC members had national aspirations for him after he spoke.
The immediate reaction from one DRC member to the speech was, "Thank you President Cuomo," as a more subdued member suggested the governor would win that title in 2016.
Cuomo was championed as the "son" of the DRC, which endorsed him in 2002 when he tried to secure the Democratic nomination for governor. The governor embraced their strong past and said, "You can call me a son of the DRC anytime... I was born from the DRC. The DRC was very good to me early on ... and more importantly they were with me in bad days."
After briefly doing a victory lap on the passage of an on-time budget, Cuomo turned to the economic revitalization of upstate New York. He talked about economic development for this troubled region, but opted not to talk about the heretofore secret Regional Economic Development Councils that are supposed to be a part of upstate's recovery.
Instead, Cuomo seemed to focus more on protecting his flank, as he laid out his vision for New York to become a leading progressive state. This message felt like a response to critics who alleged that his budget was too fiscally conservative. Refuting that belief, the governor stressed the government's role in helping people and waxed on about the state's potential to be a leader on civil rights.
"We led the way and we're going to do it again," Cuomo said, as he promised the state would be the progressive capital for women's rights, reproductive rights, environmental rights and marriage equality.

Chance of Marriage? Martins Edition

In our ongoing series about the chance of same-sex marriage passing the Republican controlled Senate, we are now going to examine the potential vote of freshman Jack Martins.
Martins, a Long Island Republican, defeated Craig Johnson in the fall, which means he now occupies a seat formerly held by an ardent supporter of same-sex marriage. In fact, now, the seat is held by someone who is likely to vote no on same-sex marriage if it ever came up in the Senate.
In December edition of Capital Tonight, Martins espoused his objection to same-sex marriage and added that these types of issues should be put off until after the budget is dealt with.
He did say, though, that same-sex marriage does need to be addressed.
We have now covered all the seats in the State Senate that flipped on the issue of same-sex marriage, and the result is the status quo. There are three yes votes that were no votes and there are three no votes that were yes votes.
But fear not, because there is still more to this story. There is already some rumblings about Democrats, who had voted against same-sex marriage in 2009, possibly changing their positions. We'll be exploring this possibility and other relevant questions in the future about same-sex marriage in the Senate.

Chance of Marriage? Carlucci Edition

The passing of Republican Senator Tom Morahan made his district at play for a Democrat, which made it possible that a yes vote for same-sex marriage could emerge. With the win by Democrat (excuse me, Independent Democrat) David Carlucci in Novemeber, Morahan's no vote switched to the affirmative, as his seat is now being filled by a social progressive.
Carlucci, who was endorsed by the Empire State Pride Agenda, is the third new yes vote for same-sex marriage, joining Avella and Kennedy. If the rest of the Senate remained static, this means same-sex marriage would now have 27 votes in its favor and be only 5 away from becoming law.
Unfortunately for proponents of this future, we've already covered two yes votes that have become no votes with the victories of Zeldin and Grisanti, with one more new no vote to cover.
But there remains a handful of no votes that have since announced that they're influx, so definitely stay tuned, as we wait for a same-sex marriage to be introduced in either chamber.

Chance of Marriage? Kennedy Edition

Proponents of same-sex marriage almost certainly gained an ally for their cause when Tim Kennedy, D-Buffalo, was elected to succeed former state senator Bill Stachowski.
During the summer of 2010, as Kennedy was in the midst of knocking off Stachowski in the Democratic Primary, he staked out a position on same-sex marriage that was starkly contrasted with his opponent. Stachowski had voted against the measure in December of 2009 and Kennedy was able to rally support from the gay rights community by forcefully advocating the other way.
“I have always been, I am, and I will continue to be a supporter of marriage equality,” Kennedy said last summer when his gay rights credentials were in question.
That steadfast support earned him the endorsement of the powerful Empire State Pride Agenda. Interestingly, though, in announcing their support, the ESPA noted that Kennedy promised he would sponsor same-sex marriage legislation, but he hasn't done that yet.
Even with this unfulfilled promise, it seems like Kennedy is a new yes vote for same-sex marriage. With this inclusion we're about even from the last time the vote was taken, with Avella and Kennedy representing new yes votes, while Zeldin and Grisanti represent new no votes, and Kruger's vote is in limbo.

Chance of Marriage? Grisanti not Gaga Edition

Freshman state Senator Mark Grisanti, R-Buffalo, may have once been a Democrat, but he is unlikely to vote on same-sex marriage the same way his Democratic predecessor, Antoine Thompson, did.
Grisanti's position on the issue was pushed into the limelight recently when pop sensation Lady Gaga used an appearance in Buffalo to urge fans to contact the senator about this issue.
In the wake of that advocacy, Grisanti reiterated his opposition to same-sex marriage, which he said stems from his Catholic beliefs. (His position had been previously espoused in 2008 when Grisanti was primarying Thompson.) "To me, 'marriage' is between a man and a woman," he said. "It’s a term that’s been around for thousands of years and [applying it to same-sex unions] is like calling a cat a dog. I don’t think that needs to be changed."
The line about cats and dogs drew the ire of his Democratic colleague Tom Duane, who is the only openly gay senator, who characterized Grisanti's comments as "sad and unfortunate."
This would all seem to definitively indicate that Grisanti is another no vote on same-sex marriage. This in addition to the other new senators we've covered, Zeldin, Avella, Kruger's eventual absence and Ball shows that same-sex marriage still has a long way to go.
Stay tuned for more profiles on new senators and some that may be waffling on the issue...

Chance of Marriage 4? Ball Edition

The fighting 40th senate district has new representation this year with Republican Senator Greg Ball in the seat vacated by Republican Vince Leibell, but it seems like same-sex marriage still has the same chances. Leibell stood in opposition with his fellow Republicans in 2009 when same-sex marriage came up for a vote and Ball opposed the measure in the Assembly.
While this would seem to make Ball's vote in the Senate seem pretty cut and dry, the senator has a mixed record of support for gay rights issues. He has constantly received support form the Log Cabin Republicans, the gay arm of the GOP, in 2009 he opposed "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and in the fall of 2010 condemned the comments of GOP candidate Carl Paladino for comments he made about gay couples.
Unfortunately for proponents of gay marriage, though, these positive positions are unlikely to equal a vote in favor of their proposal in the senate if and when it comes up for a vote.
With Ball's likely no vote, the canceled out flips of Zeldin and Avella, and the uncertainty now in Carl Kruger's soon-to-be former seat, gay marriage seems to have gained no ground.
Stay tuned for more editions of Chance of Marriage...

Chance of Marriage? Post-Kruger Edition

As we continue our look at the prospects of same-sex marriage, which is in the news again after Gov. Andrew Cuomo met with proponents of the measure, its time to turn our attention toward the vote that would have been cast by Democratic Senator and part-time troll Carl Kruger.
Kruger, one of the four amigos, was also one of the no votes on same-sex marriage when it came up in December of 2009. Now, with his apparent ouster seeming imminent as he turned himself in to the U.S. Attorney's office on Thursday, his vote could be in flux.
This represents a major coup for same-sex advocates, as Kruger's district is heavily democratic. Unfortunately for them, though, the district has a lot of immigrants and is socially conservative, which doesn't bode extremely well for the proposal.
So what does this mean? I would say too soon to tell. As we've covered so far, though, the new votes we have are Zeldin's no and Avella's yes vote.

Chance of Marriage? Avella Edition

In our ongoing series of posts weighing the possibility of gay marriage passing the New York Senate, we're taking a look at Queens, where Democrat Tony Avella now occupies the seat that was held by Republican Frank Padavan.
This represents a win for the proponents of same-sex marriage, with Padavan's no vote shifting to a yes vote with Avella.
With the revelation of Zeldin's no vote, this new yes vote brings the measure back to even.
Stay tuned for the next edition...

Chance of Marriage? Zeldin Edition

On Wednesday, Gov. Andrew Cuomo met with same-sex marriage proponents to lay out a strategy going forward to make their shared goal a reality. In the aftermath of the meeting, the governor said it was one of many meetings that will be held and argued that the current limit on same-sex marriage isn't fair.
"To me this is more than just a piece of legislation. This is about the lives of people who I have known for many years, who currently are without the rights to which they are entitled. I look forward to working with lawmakers and stakeholders to make sure that New York joins the growing number of states that allow the freedom to marry for all couples," said Cuomo.
His biggest obstacle, though, is a Senate that has continuously failed to pass this measure. Most recently it failed by a vote of 24-38, with Democrats squandering their slim majority.
Now, with Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, R-Rockville Centre, promising that the measure could come up for a vote, its time to re-examine the bill's chances. We'll start by examining the views of a freshman Sen. Lee Zeldin, R-Long Island, who succeeded Democrat Brian Foley, who voted for the measure.
When Foley did vote for the measure, Zeldin announced that he would have opposed the measure. "Personally, I happen to believe that marriage should be defined as between a man and woman… And I know many people who are gay and that is their business and I respect that," wrote Zeldin when the measure failed.
This means that Zeldin is a no. Stay tuned for additional installments of "Chance of Marriage?" as we wait for a same-sex marriage bill to be introduced.